Current market review and perspective of Florfenicol, Tilmicocin, vitamins and aminoacids

On October 21, the average market price was 440 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.69% MoM, a three-month high, but slightly lower than the same period last year, a YoY decrease of 2.21%.

After florfenicol price hit a new high in the year in April, it fluctuated downward. The average price hit a new low by July since 2018, and then the average market price began to rise slowly.

Look at the chart on the left, florfenicol price has been in a large oscillating downward channel since 2017, that is, the lows continue to set new lows, the highs are lower than the previous highs, and the average price is fluctuating downwards. But it is currently in a volatile upward process.

During the Golden Week (Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day), the market has a robust wait-and-see atmosphere and very few transactions. Immediately after the festival, it’s the right time for preparations for API CHINA exhibition. Both the supply and demand sides hope to obtain the latest price trends. Last year, around API (10-12/OCT, Nanchang)time, the supply side conspired to raise prices, but it soon calmed down. This year, before the API China (14-16/OCT Nanjing), the quotations of mainstream factories have been increased, which is affected by the supply of upstream raw materials and also stimulated by favourable downstream demand.

The domestic livestock industry is recovering well with strong demand. On October 21, at a press conference on the agricultural and rural economic situation in the first three quarters of 2020 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chief Economist Wei Baigang announced that by the end of September, the national live pig inventory reached 370 million heads, returning to 84% inventory of the end of 2017; The number of breeding sows went 38.22 million heads, returning to 86% of the end of 2017. The output of poultry, beef, and mutton reached to 24.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.

However, since October, production and supply have not eased. With the advent of the heating season in North China, environmental protection is another factor that inhibits the regular operation of the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. For florfenicol, its critical raw material D-beta-methylsulfonephenylethyl serinate is mainly produced in the north, which is very likely to be the main factor for the further increase in the price of florfenicol.We supply the following medicated premix,in addition of raw material in CPV standard.

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On October 14, the market price of Tilmicosin was 348-352 yuan/kg, a slight rise, almost at same level as the same period last year.

From the price chart, the average market price of Tilmicosin reached a historical low in November,2019 in recent years, the price has been hovering at the bottom for a long time and there is no sign of rebound.

However, this situation is loosen in September. Tilmicosin prices showed a slight rebound at the bottom, which is believed to be related to the gradual recovery of the pig stock and the increase in downstream demand. As a matter of fact, not only Tilmicosin, but some other mostly used veterinary raw materials such as tiamulin have seen their prices improve recently.

In the time coming, with the continuous recovery and improvement of the livestock industry, APIs represented by Tilmicosin may emerge from the long-term downturn and start a wave of rising market.

In addition of APIs of Tilmicosin base and Tilmicosin Phosphate,we do OEM/ODM of the following medicated premix, which is the first choice for the treatment of the respiratory syndrome.

Vitamin prices are generally sluggish,though the prices of vitamins A, D3, and E rose slightly due to manufacturers’accident some time ago, the price rise did not continue so far.

China exports approximately 77% of its vitamin products, and its market prosperity and prices are highly correlated with overseas demands. Judging from this year’s export data, the shipment volume decreased month by month after the March-April-May peak, reflecting the close impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In January and February, the epidemic in China spread rapidly, and the overseas customers made lots of panic purchases worrying that China's production and supply would be interrupted. After March, the epidemic in China was gradually eased and partly controlled, and production began to resume and offices re-open. At the same time, COVID-19,however, has spread across the globe and have been far from being effectively controlled, and even a second or third wave of epidemics has appeared, which has led to a decline in economic activities and severe hit to the husbandary.

 New demand is sluggish, the users are consuming the inventory or buying for immediate use. This situation may continue until the second quarter of 2021.

Amino acid prices fluctuate greatly,and has generally began an upward trend due to the price increase of corn,an initial raw material. Huge imports of corn can supplement domestic production only to some extent.The price of amino acid products are estimated to rise to a certain high level and enter the plateau period, then continue until the corn harvesting season in the coming year (October,2021).