Adisseo’s United States 30 Day Outlook (October, 2019)

An active early Fall weather pattern will set-up over much of the central and northern U.S. as a fast southwest to northeast jet stream configuration dominates, especially during the first half of October. The Jet Stream steering winds are expected to dive southeast into the western U.S. then veer east to northeast across the Central Plains then into the southern Great Lakes region before exiting the U.S. in southern New England. This jet stream pattern often produces active weather across much of U.S., especially across the heart of the country including the Corn Belt. However, as we head into the 2nd half of the month, there are signs of change as the jet stream surges north into Canada. This would bring unseasonably warm conditions to much of the country limiting the opportunities for a hard frost or freeze for many. As far as precipitation is concerned, the consistent battle zone that is wavering north to south across the northern and central Plains will shift east a bit and become fixed near or in the Corn Belt. This will exacerbate the unusually wet environment that has plagued much of the northern Corn Belt over the last several months. On the other hand, there appears to be no relief in sight for the dry conditions over portions of the Deep South and southeastern U.S. For the most part, tropical moisture has missed these areas and this trend likely continues. The good news is that much drier weather conditions are expected in the Northern Plains, this will finally provide an opportunity for those areas to dry out.

Canadian air early on will give way to a warmer weather pattern as we head through the month. This will likely delay the onset of a hard frost or freeze for many. The battle zone that brought significant rains to much of this region over the past month will sag south into Iowa, southern Wisconsin and Illinois. This is where periodic heavy rains are expected and will enhance the already moist conditions that exist in some areas.

Periods of significant rain are expected over much of this region as the aforementioned active frontal zone sags south into the northern and central Appalachian Mountains along with the mid-Atlantic coast. A sharp contrast between wet and dry will likely set-up somewhere near or just south of the Tennessee River Valley. Temperatures should average near normal over much of the region as cool Canadian air and warm Gulf of Mexico air fight for real estate supremacy.

Unfortunate news here as continued dry conditions are expected to enhance the drought conditions that have developed in this region. The persistent high pressure ridge that is currently anchored over the southeastern U.S. will eventually breakdown. In turn, a cooler weather pattern is expected. There is some hope for moisture, but a widespread soaking rain is not expected. As usual in October, the wildcard is whether or not tropical systems will affect this part of the U.S. The current thinking is that tropical systems will be suppressed from surging north into this region.

Not much change in this region as the active jet stream stays just north of the southern Plans. This will continue to bring a mostly dry weather pattern. Much of this section of the country has been unusually dry and has developed serious drought conditions; this is NOT expected to change. The big question is how far south moisture reaches into the southern Plains. Current thinking is that Oklahoma and Missouri will be the transition area from a wet to a dry environment.