APIs and Vitamin MARKET

In October, the price fluctuation of most APIs was slight, mainly because of the lack of downstream demand after the National Day holiday. There was a lack of effective stimulus in the APIs market, and there were no apparent factors on both the supply or demand sides to push the price up. Due to increased sales pressure on the supply side, some suppliers have new price releases or provide preferential delivery conditions. The downstream procurement is still subject to actual demand, with little willingness for replenishment and stock-up.

What needs to be noted is that the north of China is entering the winter air pollution prevention and control period, which is bound to negatively impact production and supply.

Offers from Florfenicol factories have increased slightly this month compared to the previous month. Florfenicol plays a vital role in the pig breeding industry, which has a high market attention, and the price trend is stable and strong. The reference transaction price is CNY480-490/kg.

Doxycycline prices have been adjusting downwards from its highs for several months. They have now fallen considerably compared to this year's highs, mainly due to the gradual recovery of market supply this year and the lack of solid demand to stop the decline in the past few months.

After entering October, the market transaction price of doxycycline has been around CNY525/KG, supported by the cost and limited profit margins at this price level. Factories have raised their offer downstream, and we suggest building up positions in batches to cover the short at low prices.

Current factory offer is CNY295/KG.

We continue our last month's view that high pig prices have boosted the market enthusiasm for the related products. The current market demand for Tylosin Tartrate continues to be strong, but there is a shortage of factory supply,tight delivery, and extended lead time.

Coupled with inflation expectations, the tylosin price is estimated to continue to be firm, while attention needs to the related products of Tilmicosin and Tylvalosin.

There are two phenomena:

1 --Last year's Golden-nine-and-silver-ten was reflected in a significant price rise, but this year's September-October market is quiet and calm, without any wind and wave;

2 -- Almost all of the vitamin prices were stable with a slight drop.

The domestic vitamin market remained weak. Due to the domestic economy's dull outlook and the epidemic's uncertainty, enterprises continue to be in wait-and-see sentiment. The overall weak demand from the downstream, coupled with rising prices of raw materials such as energy, has increased the profitability pressure on the supply side.

The average market price in Q3 was CNY117.50/KG, down by about 38% YoY.

"The overall price is in the low range", an NHU spokesperson said to the reporters. But because of the cost pressure, producers still insisted on holding prices. Before National Day, the downstream inventory was slightly replenished, but digestion was slow.

The feed additives market has not reflected the demand for feed raw materials caused by the rising pig prices. Its market price might maintain a bottom run during the year if no events occur that exceed market expectations.

However, Adisseo (France, the fourth largest VA producer in the world, accounting for 14.6% of global capacity) said on its interactive platform on October 27 that it had decided to temporarily reduce VA production to control and optimize costs. Demand for vitamin A will undoubtedly shift to China, and a continued rise in price will be inevitable.

The average market price in Q3 was CNY83.00/KG, down by about 6% YoY.

The overall vitamin demand is expected to pick up soon thanks to the repair of pig farming profits.

DSM's Swiss plant has not been able to resume production as planned, nor has there been a confirmed date for resumption since it ceased production at the end of July. Coupled with the natural gas supply disruption, the European vitamin market has begun to worry, and prices have started to disturb upwards, bringing strong expectations of price increases. For the supply side, the peak season from November until February is the spring season for vitamin E.

The current mainstream price is CNY165/KG. The price of this product is volatile a lot in phase, however, after experiencing a sharp decline in the early stage, the price tends to ease, and the overall market is stable with a very slight fluctuation. 

Pantothenate lactone, a raw material of D-calphan, is critical for the stability of the supply of calcium pantothenate. Nearly 60% of China's production capacity is affected by environmental policies as this raw material is produced by a chemical process.  It is necessary to pay attention to the news of air pollution control in northern China in winter.

The current mainstream producers' K3(MSB)price is CNY175-190/KG.

The price still maintains the high level as last month. The high cost supported by the rising price of imported chromium ore has not been effectively resolved in a short time. Since the end of August, the impact of power restrictions and raw material shortage in many places, mainstream vitamin producers such as Zhenhua Minfeng, Mianyang Vanetta, and Luliang Peace still stopped quotation. The domestic demand is significantly seasonal, and its price is indeed impossible to go back to the level of mid-2021.

The amino acid market quotation this month is generally stable and strong. The epidemic's impact on logistics and the high price of corn and soybean meal support the amino acid market. New corn grain in Northeast China is being put to market, with the purchase price being higher than expected, strengthening amino acid market confidence. At the same time, the new production capacity, however, negatively correlates with the reallocation of market share and prices.

The current mainstream price of 98% L-lysine HCL is CNY9600-9900/MT.

The lysine market is affected by the quotation of upstream factories, and the price is stable. Influenced by the epidemic, delivery and transportation time have been delayed. Close attention is needed to the delivery and transportation situation of upstream factories.

The current mainstream price of L-Threonine is CNY9800-10500/MT

TYLVADIS: TYLVALOSIN(50mg,250mg, 500mg/g  as Tylvalosin Tartrate) for treatment and prevention of respiratory diseases, enteric and other diseases, mainly caused by microorganisms in pigs and chicken.