In the ongoing EU lysine anti-dumping case (Case AD706), key developments indicate a crucial timeline for involved parties. Feedback on the final disclosure is expected by May 5, 2025, leading to the awaited final ruling on July 12, 2025.
Insights suggest a potential shift in anti-dumping duties, with companies initially facing higher rates likely to witness a notable reduction in the final disclosure. Concurrently, other entities may maintain their existing duty rates, shaping the market landscape significantly.
Foremost, anti-dumping duties ranging from 40-50% could hinder local EU lysine producers' path to profitability. Additionally, such duties might render lysine prices in the EU market uncompetitive for overseas brands, impacting the resumption of lysine supply from abroad.
Moreover, MEIHUA GROUP, a key player facing a substantial decrease in anti-dumping duties, stands as the global leader in lysine supply. The potential resurgence of its supply to the EU market could reshape supply dynamics in the EU and Chinese markets, introducing uncertainties in product structures and amino acid pricing.
Nevertheless, uncertainties loom over MEIHUA GROUP's adjustment plans for its product portfolio and capacity. Should the group pivot from its initial production and supply strategies, a temporary alleviation in competitive pressures on minor amino acids might ensue, influencing near-term market dynamics.