USA - New virus threatens hog profits: Porcine Circovirus Type 2
Published:June 12, 2006
Source :DesMoines Register
A newly activated virus sweeping through hog country is the wild card for continued pork profits, according to a veteran hog industry analyst.
U.S. pork exports and domestic demand also will play a role in determining if more than two years of hog profits will continue.
Glenn Grimes, an agricultural economist who is a professor emeritus at the University of Missouri and a consultant for the pork industry, said the impact of the virus, known as Porcine Circovirus Type 2, could throw a wrench into price projections for the hog market this year.
Circovirus can wipe out 30 percent to 40 percent of a hog herd, experts say, and cause losses of more than $7 a head.
If the virus hits Iowa hog producers in a big way, it could cut production. But for those who escape an outbreak, it could extend the string of 28 straight months of profits, according to Iowa State University Extension estimates.
If hog production does increase, the profitable run that Iowa hog producers have enjoyed could end in November, Steve Meyer, an economist at Paragon Economics, said Friday at the World Pork Expo.
Grimes said hog production was expected to increase slowly, but the introduction of circovirus could change that.
"If this disease is as bad as I hear it is, I don't foresee a production increase at all," he said.
Dr. Darrell Neuberger, swine technical manager for Fort Dodge Animal Health, said the circovirus had turned up in Iowa hogs in the past two months after breaking out in Canada and North Carolina. Both supply pigs to Iowa.
"A large of number of veterinarians I talked to in Iowa several months ago said they didn't need a circovirus vaccine," Neuberger said. "Now, they are all calling me."
Fort Dodge Animal Health, a division of Wyeth, announced Thursday that it had received a license from the USDA to sell a vaccine called Suvaxyn PCV2 One Dose that the company developed with Iowa State and Virginia Tech universities.
The vaccine is being made in Fort Dodge and Charles City, but won't be available until the end of June or early July.
Circovirus was first identified in the early 1990s, but has only recently become a problem.
"Something has triggered it to become more active," said Dr. Joe Connor, a veterinarian in Carthage, Ill. He said circovirus moves swiftly once it hits a hog herd. "It's passed through the air and by hog urine and feces," he said.
The virus mainly hits growing hogs, Connor said, and causes respiratory distress and weight loss.
Grimes said the profitability that hog producers have enjoyed for more than two years has been caused by strong pork demand, both domestically and for export.
Grimes, 83, said he's never seen a period like it when hog prices and hog production rose at the same time.
Domestic demand for pork, beef and chicken increased significantly because of the popularity of protein-heavy diets. Foreign demand for pork increased because of fears of mad cow disease and avian influenza, Grimes said.
U.S. pork exports have doubled since 2002, he said.
