Vitamin and Amino Acid Market

@Mahamud Shimul

Dear Shimul, Thank you so much for your kind comments.

1---Current Market Conditions (May–June 2026)
Mainstream Prices: Ex-factory prices in major producing regions range from USD625 to USD675 per tonne (excluding tax). This represents a doubling compared to the 2024 average price and is within a historically high range.

2---Market Characteristics:
Strong cost support: Phosphate rock prices remain stable at high levels; although sulphuric acid prices have fluctuated, they remain elevated. Coupled with the reinstatement of a 13% VAT levy from 2026 (following the abolition of the previous tax exemption), this has increased costs by approximately approx.USD60 per tonne.

3---Key influencing factors
(1) Raw material costs: Tight supply and high prices for phosphate rock; high and volatile prices for sulphur and sulphuric acid; resumption of VAT
(2) Supply side: Environmental production restrictions + no new capacity additions + market concentration among leading players, resulting in low operating rates (~40%)
(3) Policy: 13% VAT to be levied from January 2026; enhanced strategic status of phosphate rock; export controls

4---Forecast for Future Trends
Short term (Q3 2026, summer and autumn) — Volatile at high levels with a downward bias
Barring sharp surges in sulphuric acid or phosphate rock prices, or unexpected maintenance shutdowns, prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. Supported by costs, a significant decline is unlikely.

5---Practical Recommendations
It is not advisable to stockpile large quantities at present. We recommend replenishing stocks in batches and maintaining an inventory cycle of 15–20 days. At the same time, consider optimising formulations using super-phytase and reducing addition ratios to offset costs. Pay close attention to production levels at major plants in Hubei and Yunnan, as well as fluctuations in sulphuric acid prices.