THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL TO ANALYSE THE PRODUCTIVITY AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF DAIRY FARMS

Published: November 20, 2011

By: Shafiullah, Sahibzada and Peter Wynn

Summary

This simulation model is a predictive tool, being developed for adoption in the Pakistani dairy production system. Previously Mr. Cam McDonald (CSIRO) has developed an Integrated Assessment Tool (IAT) for beef farming systems in Indonesia. The model is being fed with data collected in Pakistan to make the model more suitable for the dairy sector in Pakistan. The data collected include livestock production, livestock management, fodder production, environment and soil. The whole country has been divided into eleven various agro-ecological zones based on environmental and geographical differences to minimize complexity. This tool is being developed for successful adoption in the various sectors of the Pakistani dairy production system. The model will explore the key factors affecting the farm budget and help in decision making on the farm. This will forecast production outcomes for the next 10 years including cattle live weight, milk production, fodder availability, supplements availability, heifers’ replacement, labour availability, revenue, cash balance and gross margin. The model will be very helpful for extension workers and livestock and dairy experts to assist farmers or investors in establishing their current status of production efficiency and their potential to improve both outputs and farm profit. Innovative farmers will use the tool for calculating profit and loss over short periods and be able to evaluate the impact of changes they implement on farm to the farm budget both in the short and long term. Keywords: Simulation model, production, finance, dairy farm

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