Int’l - Bird Flu Virus May Return to Europe in Coming Weeks

Bird flu may return to Europe in the coming weeks, spread by wild ducks, swans and geese carrying the lethal virus south from their Arctic mating grounds.

Twenty-six European nations reported initial infections of the H5N1 avian influenza strain in poultry or wild birds in late 2005 and early 2006 after a severe winter in Russia and the Caucasus area pushed migratory birds south and westward. The Food and Agriculture Organization said a resurgence of H5N1 in China and Russia indicates the pattern may be repeated.

"A similar situation could occur in the approaching weeks with the migratory movement of wild birds from their northern breeding grounds,'' the United Nations agency said in the October edition of a newsletter published on its Web site. "Eastern Europe and Caucasus region is at particularly high risk'' because of the higher density of backyard poultry there.

Diseased birds increase the opportunities for human infection and provide chances for H5N1 to change into a form more dangerous to people. The virus is reported to have killed a person every four days this year, more than double the 2005 rate. Millions could die if H5N1 becomes easily transmissible between people, sparking a lethal pandemic.

The H5N1 virus is known to have infected 256 people in 10 countries in the past three years, killing 151 of them, the World Health Organization said on Oct. 16. Half the countries that have reported cases -- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Egypt and Djibouti -- are outside East Asia.

China, Russia

Outbreaks in the Middle East and Europe have been linked with a variant of the H5N1 virus found at China's Qinghai Lake, where more than 6,000 wild birds died in April 2005. Infected fowl were found at the nature reserve again this year, as well as in the Novosibirsk-Omsk area of Russia.

Wild migratory birds tend to flock to Siberia and other places near the Arctic Circle for breeding during the Northern Hemisphere's summer before flying south during the fall.

South Korea, which reported an H5N1 outbreak in birds in December 2003, plans to step up quarantine and surveillance to detect imported infected birds and poultry and prevent a recurrence of the disease during winter, Yonhap News said today, citing a statement by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

Colder weather may also contribute to the virus's spread.

Lingering Longer

Tests show H5N1 can survive in bird feces for at least 35 days at about 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit), the WHO said in January. At 37 degrees Celsius, it may only survive as long as a week, Robert Webster, a virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, said in May.

Central and Eastern Europe are crisscrossed by overlapping migration flyways, and their wetlands, rivers and shorelines provide sanctuary for wild fowl which can come into direct contact with backyard poultry, the Rome-based agency said.

Improved control measures on poultry farms in Russia and early warning systems there have helped stem the spread of H5N1, the FAO said. These measures could reduce the risk that avian flu will be reintroduced to Central and Western Europe, it said.

"Should there be outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe, these are likely to occur later in the year than they did in 2005,'' the agency said.

A severe pandemic similar to the one that killed 50 million people in 1918 may cause global economic losses of as much as $2 trillion, the World Bank said last month. Poultry farmers in infected countries have already suffered because of outbreaks. The Washington-based bank in January estimated the cost at $10 billion in Asia alone.

'Serious Jeopardy'

Unless the virus is controlled and eradicated, the livelihoods of people raising free-range poultry flocks as a source of income and food "will be in serious jeopardy,'' the FAO said in its Emergency Preparation Systems newsletter. "The virus will pose a constant threat to human beings and cause serious economic losses to the poultry sector and to avian wildlife-generated tourism.''

Studies of migratory waterfowl in Asia and Europe suggest these birds may play a role in introducing avian flu, although legal or illegal trade of birds and poultry may contribute more to the disease's spread within and across regions, the FAO said.

Ducks, swans and geese harbor the highest diversity and prevalence of avian influenza viruses, and past outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains in poultry have been traced to strains originating in ducks.